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2020 March Quarter Review
Read more: 2020 March Quarter ReviewEconomic Overview The spread of COVID-19 had a significant impact on global economies and investment markets in the March quarter. Rarely does any single issue wholly dominate economic and market data for a quarter. Yet COVID-19 arrived and wiped away focus on any other issue. Apart from the oil war, which itself was relegated to almost irrelevant, there was essentially no other theme that had an influence on shaping the quarter globally. In the US, confirmed cases of Covid-19 rose from 150 to over 100,000 between the first and last weeks of March. Jobless claims increased by over three million…
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2019 December Quarter Review
Read more: 2019 December Quarter ReviewEconomic Overview The geopolitical risks that dominated for much of 2019 faded in Q4, supporting global share markets. Trade uncertainty faded with the US and China’s phase one trade deal announcement, while economic data remained stable. The trade deal, signed on January 15 means planned new tariffs will not be imposed, while US tariffs imposed in September on $120 billion Chinese goods will be reduced by half. The 25% tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods will remain. China also agreed to increase purchases of US goods, with agricultural produce highlighted. The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates once in…
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2019 September Quarter Review
Read more: 2019 September Quarter ReviewEconomic Overview It was a mixed quarter and economic data reflected that. Developed markets making small gains while emerging markets fell. The US-China trade dispute rumbled on, as did global growth concerns, but central banks remained supportive with the US, Australian and European Central Banks cutting interest rates throughout the quarter. US economic data was mostly stable. Unemployment held at 3.7%, with wage growth in August stronger than anticipated. However, new non-farm job additions were lower than expected in August, at 130,000 versus predictions of 158,000. Consumer confidence also weakened. The US yield curve inverted, a phenomenon which often precedes…
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2019 June Quarter Review
Read more: 2019 June Quarter ReviewEconomic Overview It was a quarter of all-time highs in Q2 2019 as both the US S&P 500 index and Australia’s ASX All Ordinaries achieved new highs, albeit with very different time frames between their past highs and their new highs. Most developed markets posted good returns during the quarter, despite some May declines. For the most part it seemed to be accommodating language from central banks helping underpin share market gains. Uncertainty surrounding the US’ trade stance caused a May market wobble. However, investors were soon re-encouraged by continued dovishness from the Federal Reserve and indications of progress in…
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Future Man Any Less Credible Than Forecasters?
Read more: Future Man Any Less Credible Than Forecasters?Last week the media were excitedly reporting on a man named Noah who claimed he had traveled back in time from the year 2030. Noah had some great stories to tell about the future and had even passed a lie detector test apparently. Among things he’d seen from the future were the re-election of Donald Trump, humans flying to Mars in 2028, global warming causing havoc with the weather and electric cars driving at 600 miles an hour. All could be considered plausible, but as you’d expect, no one regarded Noah and the stories of what he’s seen from…
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